EU. In or out?

[simonw]

<snip>You might also notice the spiteful nature of the wording on this and many other remain zealot's musings, which sort of weakens the case often shouted out loudly (with accompanying frothing at the mouth) that leavers are the nasty natured ones in all this

As I said 3 years ago on this thread:

One thing is certain. Insulting people or taking the piss out of them because they hold a different view isn't going to make any of this easier or better.

[daveuprite]

Hi, I would happily read it but sorry I couldn’t see the link. Whilst I would not defend the abusive language that is used by some on both sides I can understand the frustration. It is a fact that people have suffered racist abuse and lost their jobs as a direct result of the referendum. If the Leave campaign denies this then it weakens their argument. They have to put a clear case that demonstrates that the advantages of leaving outweigh the disadvantages already suffered and those that many on their side are predicting will happen. Until this, it is just a lot of bluster about sovereignty and democracy which in light of what has happened in this country in the last three years is hardly worth shouting about.
Cheers

Yep exactly. When a huge change to the status quo is proposed it is incumbent on those who want the change to put the arguments for it, not so much for the status quo to defend itself. The leave side failed to do that during the original campaign, relying instead on stirred up anti immigration propaganda and a series of mythical gains, all of them blown out of the water by events since.. On the occasions they did use some quantifiable figures they were demonstrated to be untrue. It helped them win by a tiny margin, assisted by an oversimplified binary question that didn't require them to spell out in any way how or on what terms the UK should leave. Since then it's just got worse and now you rarely ever hear a genuine, provable case from the leave side that stands up to expert scrutiny. 'Just get it done' clearly does not qualify but appears to be the best they have. Now you see the unedifying struggles of leavers trying to gloss over huge cracks in what they privately know is a subsiding building when the obvious thing for the country to do is abandon this desperately flawed cause and try to draw a line under the whole disaster. Revocation would re-set things, deeply upset a lot of extremists of course, but give the UK a chance to repair some of the existing damage and prevent a lot more, as well as keep peace in NI and perhaps even save Scotland from leaving the union. We might be looking at about 4 years of pain (2016-2020) and some considerable reputational damage, rather than decades of lost rights, missed opportunities and economic trauma with absolutely no upside.

[Tramp]

If ever there was as reason to leave Europe its as i sit here at french side of city europe calais waiting for tunnel and its full of Eastern europeans that Brussles let join the block and all traveled to the uk.. Dirty thieving mens that would cut your throat for a few euros....

They have no respect for property and drive vehicle's that aintbroad worthy...

Come on Boris hurry up and kick them all out.. Least the polish intergrate into uk life..

[Jak*]

I guess it is lucky that not everyone thought like that in 1940 https://www.rafmuseum.org.uk/research/o ... adron.aspx or we might be in a different kind of Europe.
Cheers

[daveuprite]

If ever there was as reason to leave Europe its as i sit here at french side of city europe calais waiting for tunnel and its full of Eastern europeans that Brussles let join the block and all traveled to the uk.. Dirty thieving mens that would cut your throat for a few euros....

They have no respect for property and drive vehicle's that aintbroad worthy...

Come on Boris hurry up and kick them all out.. Least the polish intergrate into uk life..

That's a good example of cognitive dissonance, Russ.

Firstly 'Brussels', as you put it, simply does what the 28 governments want it to do, so when the EU admitted the ex-Sov-bloc satellites into the union, it did so with the support and agreement of the existing members who all sent MEPs to represent those who elected them in EU Parliamentary elections. Nothing was done without democratic representation of the EU population, and no country vetoed the eastward enlargement, including the UK. The Copenhagen criteria ensures that only stable democratic states with strong legal institutions can apply to join (which is incidentally why Turkey hasn't a chance in hell), and the more recent accession states like Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia had to leap through multiple hoops to gain full admission. But that's just a bit of history and we're all well aware of it.

Pre-judging the motivations and intent of desperate individuals (so desperate they often get run over) who jump lorries near the channel is dangerous and liable to be mistaken. Many have suffered a lot to be there, sometimes in ways we can only imagine, and some will resort to crime in their desperation to finish off their long journey. A large number are simply trying to escape poverty or very poor prospects and are under the impression (sometimes mistaken) that the UK's poorly regulated jobs market offers an opportunity to earn more than at home. Legal French employment is never on a 'zero-hour contract' and entry into the french jobs market requires more pre-qualification than the UK, so economic migrants tend to skip France and regard the UK as a much easier prospect/destination. This is a policy choice made by successive UK governments and nothing to do with the EU. Of course a few others at Calais will be career criminals looking for fresh chances in britain. Societies are complex and it's unsafe to package up all these people into one category, just as one shouldn't make generalised assumptions about everyone in a UK community.

The Polish comment is interesting. Once the Poles had vitally propped up the defence of britain in 1940, some of them settled in parts of the UK. I come from West London, where Polish communities thrived in the 50s-80s. Then a second wave of younger poles arrived just after Poland entered the EU, using their new-found freedom of movement rights (the same ones I used to move to France). Just like Brit builders working in Germany (Auf Wiedersehen Pet?) and many here in France, they saw opportunities to do self-employed work, or to use their high levels of education in Poland to work in the british NHS etc. But the irony is that entry into the EU eventually produced strong economic growth in Poland and reduce the disparity between UK and Polish pay rates, making it less necessary / worthwhile for Poles to work in britain. Many had already settled and assimilated until brexit came along and created a new hostile environment for them. Some are trying to stay, some were born in britain anyway, but for many the motivation for casual economic migration has diminished. I say 'ironically' because that makes Poland the perfect test case example of how the EU evens out economic disparity between member states. At present, and for a while, Romania will be the poor relation, but as the EU helps it to grow and succeed, to introduce EU standards of employment / safety / environmental protection and to benefit from the huge international trade deals that the EU does on behalf of its members, Romania will probably flourish like Poland did and become far less of a burden to the others. Remember even Spain was once a bit of a basket case after decades of fascist dictatorship, then joined the EU and is now a pretty successful country, following years of EU investment and encouragement.

It is when the differences between countries are too great that you get pressured and poorly controlled migration. Understandable. If I was a peasant from a poor Bulgarian village looking to improve my prospects I might try out the bright lights of Stuttgart, Amsterdam or London in the hope of a new life. That's what ambitious (or sometimes desperate) people do. They get on their bike. But as the large gap between Bulgarian GDP and Dutch GDP (for example) is reduced, that magnetic draw towards the richer economies reduces too. The Poland case demonstrates it, and more integration between EU member states will drag up the Romanias and Bulgarias too. Funnily enough the opposite happens too, and as the UK goes into a post-brexit recession it will prove less and less attractive in its own right. The brexiteers will get what many of them wanted - reduced immigration - but at the expense of high unemployment.

Being in a big club of like-minded countries helps an individual state to insulate it from shocks, to benefit its trade via a single market, to iron out unnecessary duplication and paperwork via common customs policy, and to provide a huge diverse marketplace for workers and business. If and when the UK leaves, it will find out that it really doesn't know what it's lost until it's gone...

[scutty]

That's a good example of cognitive dissonance, Russ.

Firstly 'Brussels', as you put it, simply does what the 28 governments want it to do, so when the EU admitted the ex-Sov-bloc satellites into the union, it did so with the support and agreement of the existing members who all sent MEPs to represent those who elected them in EU Parliamentary elections. Nothing was done without democratic representation of the EU population, and no country vetoed the eastward enlargement, including the UK. The Copenhagen criteria ensures that only stable democratic states with strong legal institutions can apply to join (which is incidentally why Turkey hasn't a chance in hell), and the more recent accession states like Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia had to leap through multiple hoops to gain full admission. But that's just a bit of history and we're all well aware of it.

Pre-judging the motivations and intent of desperate individuals (so desperate they often get run over) who jump lorries near the channel is dangerous and liable to be mistaken. Many have suffered a lot to be there, sometimes in ways we can only imagine, and some will resort to crime in their desperation to finish off their long journey. A large number are simply trying to escape poverty or very poor prospects and are under the impression (sometimes mistaken) that the UK's poorly regulated jobs market offers an opportunity to earn more than at home. Legal French employment is never on a 'zero-hour contract' and entry into the french jobs market requires more pre-qualification than the UK, so economic migrants tend to skip France and regard the UK as a much easier prospect/destination. This is a policy choice made by successive UK governments and nothing to do with the EU. Of course a few others at Calais will be career criminals looking for fresh chances in britain. Societies are complex and it's unsafe to package up all these people into one category, just as one shouldn't make generalised assumptions about everyone in a UK community.

The Polish comment is interesting. Once the Poles had vitally propped up the defence of britain in 1940, some of them settled in parts of the UK. I come from West London, where Polish communities thrived in the 50s-80s. Then a second wave of younger poles arrived just after Poland entered the EU, using their new-found freedom of movement rights (the same ones I used to move to France). Just like Brit builders working in Germany (Auf Wiedersehen Pet?) and many here in France, they saw opportunities to do self-employed work, or to use their high levels of education in Poland to work in the british NHS etc. But the irony is that entry into the EU eventually produced strong economic growth in Poland and reduce the disparity between UK and Polish pay rates, making it less necessary / worthwhile for Poles to work in britain. Many had already settled and assimilated until brexit came along and created a new hostile environment for them. Some are trying to stay, some were born in britain anyway, but for many the motivation for casual economic migration has diminished. I say 'ironically' because that makes Poland the perfect test case example of how the EU evens out economic disparity between member states. At present, and for a while, Romania will be the poor relation, but as the EU helps it to grow and succeed, to introduce EU standards of employment / safety / environmental protection and to benefit from the huge international trade deals that the EU does on behalf of its members, Romania will probably flourish like Poland did and become far less of a burden to the others. Remember even Spain was once a bit of a basket case after decades of fascist dictatorship, then joined the EU and is now a pretty successful country, following years of EU investment and encouragement.

It is when the differences between countries are too great that you get pressured and poorly controlled migration. Understandable. If I was a peasant from a poor Bulgarian village looking to improve my prospects I might try out the bright lights of Stuttgart, Amsterdam or London in the hope of a new life. That's what ambitious (or sometimes desperate) people do. They get on their bike. But as the large gap between Bulgarian GDP and Dutch GDP (for example) is reduced, that magnetic draw towards the richer economies reduces too. The Poland case demonstrates it, and more integration between EU member states will drag up the Romanias and Bulgarias too. Funnily enough the opposite happens too, and as the UK goes into a post-brexit recession it will prove less and less attractive in its own right. The brexiteers will get what many of them wanted - reduced immigration - but at the expense of high unemployment.

Being in a big club of like-minded countries helps an individual state to insulate it from shocks, to benefit its trade via a single market, to iron out unnecessary duplication and paperwork via common customs policy, and to provide a huge diverse marketplace for workers and business. If and when the UK leaves, it will find out that it really doesn't know what it's lost until it's gone...

What a great post - now, if someone from the Leave side could put the benefits of Brexit is an as clear fashion for us all to read I am sure we would all appreciate it. Don't just diss this post, give the positives from your side of the discussion please.

[qcnr]

If ever there was as reason to leave Europe its as i sit here at french side of city europe calais waiting for tunnel and its full of Eastern europeans that Brussles let join the block and all traveled to the uk.. Dirty thieving mens that would cut your throat for a few euros....

They have no respect for property and drive vehicle's that aintbroad worthy...

Come on Boris hurry up and kick them all out.. Least the polish intergrate into uk life..

That's a good example of cognitive dissonance, Russ.

Firstly 'Brussels', as you put it, simply does what the 28 governments want it to do, so when the EU admitted the ex-Sov-bloc satellites into the union, it did so with the support and agreement of the existing members who all sent MEPs to represent those who elected them in EU Parliamentary elections. Nothing was done without democratic representation of the EU population, and no country vetoed the eastward enlargement, including the UK. The Copenhagen criteria ensures that only stable democratic states with strong legal institutions can apply to join (which is incidentally why Turkey hasn't a chance in hell), and the more recent accession states like Estonia, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia had to leap through multiple hoops to gain full admission. But that's just a bit of history and we're all well aware of it.

Pre-judging the motivations and intent of desperate individuals (so desperate they often get run over) who jump lorries near the channel is dangerous and liable to be mistaken. Many have suffered a lot to be there, sometimes in ways we can only imagine, and some will resort to crime in their desperation to finish off their long journey. A large number are simply trying to escape poverty or very poor prospects and are under the impression (sometimes mistaken) that the UK's poorly regulated jobs market offers an opportunity to earn more than at home. Legal French employment is never on a 'zero-hour contract' and entry into the french jobs market requires more pre-qualification than the UK, so economic migrants tend to skip France and regard the UK as a much easier prospect/destination. This is a policy choice made by successive UK governments and nothing to do with the EU. Of course a few others at Calais will be career criminals looking for fresh chances in britain. Societies are complex and it's unsafe to package up all these people into one category, just as one shouldn't make generalised assumptions about everyone in a UK community.

The Polish comment is interesting. Once the Poles had vitally propped up the defence of britain in 1940, some of them settled in parts of the UK. I come from West London, where Polish communities thrived in the 50s-80s. Then a second wave of younger poles arrived just after Poland entered the EU, using their new-found freedom of movement rights (the same ones I used to move to France). Just like Brit builders working in Germany (Auf Wiedersehen Pet?) and many here in France, they saw opportunities to do self-employed work, or to use their high levels of education in Poland to work in the british NHS etc. But the irony is that entry into the EU eventually produced strong economic growth in Poland and reduce the disparity between UK and Polish pay rates, making it less necessary / worthwhile for Poles to work in britain. Many had already settled and assimilated until brexit came along and created a new hostile environment for them. Some are trying to stay, some were born in britain anyway, but for many the motivation for casual economic migration has diminished. I say 'ironically' because that makes Poland the perfect test case example of how the EU evens out economic disparity between member states. At present, and for a while, Romania will be the poor relation, but as the EU helps it to grow and succeed, to introduce EU standards of employment / safety / environmental protection and to benefit from the huge international trade deals that the EU does on behalf of its members, Romania will probably flourish like Poland did and become far less of a burden to the others. Remember even Spain was once a bit of a basket case after decades of fascist dictatorship, then joined the EU and is now a pretty successful country, following years of EU investment and encouragement.

It is when the differences between countries are too great that you get pressured and poorly controlled migration. Understandable. If I was a peasant from a poor Bulgarian village looking to improve my prospects I might try out the bright lights of Stuttgart, Amsterdam or London in the hope of a new life. That's what ambitious (or sometimes desperate) people do. They get on their bike. But as the large gap between Bulgarian GDP and Dutch GDP (for example) is reduced, that magnetic draw towards the richer economies reduces too. The Poland case demonstrates it, and more integration between EU member states will drag up the Romanias and Bulgarias too. Funnily enough the opposite happens too, and as the UK goes into a post-brexit recession it will prove less and less attractive in its own right. The brexiteers will get what many of them wanted - reduced immigration - but at the expense of high unemployment.

Being in a big club of like-minded countries helps an individual state to insulate it from shocks, to benefit its trade via a single market, to iron out unnecessary duplication and paperwork via common customs policy, and to provide a huge diverse marketplace for workers and business. If and when the UK leaves, it will find out that it really doesn't know what it's lost until it's gone...

An excellent post and it demonstrates the complexities of being within the EU. It is so very easy to bring everything down to a few general and simple emotional arguments. THe reality however is usually a lot more complex than can be imagined. Had I been living in the UK at the time
of the referendum I would have voted remain. The main reason being has been demonstrated over the last 3 years. Politicians asking the populace a simple question to an extremely complex problem. The referendum would have been better off asking people what is the solution to Einstein's relativity equation. But the damage has been done. Companies have fled the UK, external investment is down, the uncertainty and internal squabling have divided the country. I am glad I live in Norway and can watch from a distance. But I feel sorry for the majority of the people in the UK, as they will suffer. Those that won't suffer will simply be positioning themselves to get even richer, more power, etc, etc

[Tramp]

Has anyone actually who wants to remain in europe actually looked into and realised the huge negative impact all the eastern europeans have had on jobs in Germany, Holland and the power states... Except france where its near impossible to work as a non frenchman..... The uk low paid sector is over run with transiant workers from newly entered eastern european states... The haulage industry in Holland has seen huge amounts of Dutch lorrys and drivers tossed on scrap heap only for Romaninan and polish trucks and drivers to take their jobs and lively hood...

No good quoting 1945 Uk imigramnts today is a totaly different situation...

[daveuprite]

Except france where its near impossible to work as a non frenchman.....

Not the case Russ. I, and many people I know, are not French but we run small businesses here in France. There's a fair bit of bureaucracy and paperwork to get registered etc but it's very do-able. My wife Tracie works 24 hours a week for a french 'association', gets a salary paid in Euros (obviously) and full employment rights under French law . Getting work in France is quite possible. But the point is that a french salaried job is a proper job. You get a contract, agreed contracted working hours, sick pay and paid holiday entitlement. For that reason workers are required to take paid training courses, or to join metiers (kind of industry guilds) if self-employed. A frenchman can't legally just buy a van, call himself a builder and get on with it. He has to have all the correct accreditation and training etc. There are no zero-hour, zero-rights, hire-and-fire jobs in France (unless they're illegal and on the black of course). Partly as a result, unemployment is higher here, but exploitation and poor-quality jobs are much lower. You are either in a properly regulated salaried job or you are unemployed, looking for a job and looked after by the state. There is very little in the way of dodgy middle ground, as there is in the UK. Taxes are also higher than the UK, although public services are much better in return.

But all of the above requires a fairly settled status. To apply for french employment you will need a steady home, time and patience to apply, money to tide you over while you are job-seeking etc etc. All things unavailable to migrants who left with little, arrive suddenly and unconventionally, and need work as soon as possible. The UK's less-regulated workplaces offer far more chances to get started quickly than France does, although the down-side is the jobs migrants tend to get will often be contract-less, involve poor working conditions, exploited, unreliable and poorly paid. In fact the very conditions that many UK job-seekers do not want. Which is why the fields of Lincolnshire were (until recently) full of Eastern European fruit-pickers.

[DavidS]

It’s far far easier to justify the status quo than read a crystal ball.
That’s not to say that I don’t accept it’s virtually impossible to specify what ‘improvements’ will come out of leave but if people and countries didn’t push the metaphorical boundaries then we would still be living in the dark ages. Sometimes you know in your heart it’s the right thing to do.

By the way, vast numbers of these migrants (not genuine refugees) are finding the substantial funds (apparently about £7k per person now) to pay the nasty little facilitators to get to Europe, money that could be far better used at home, I suspect. Surely the word has got back now that the chances of getting something out of the journey are slim to non existent.