EU. In or out?

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Spike941
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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by Spike941 » Mon May 27, 2019 9:24 pm

DavidS wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 8:55 pm
The Remainers seem to have gone quiet. Are they asking for a re-vote? ;)
I thought there might have been some observations on the EU election results by now.
Ok, if you take the Labour and Tory votes and assume they’re still 51-49 in favour of leaving. Then add those percentages to those who voted for the Remain and Leave parties respectively. Then by my rough reckoning the Remainers have it 52-48. Take that as the second referendum, and as Leavers mentioned many many months back, make it best of three. Now what could be more democratic than that?

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Richard Simpson Mark II
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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by Richard Simpson Mark II » Mon May 27, 2019 10:11 pm

My observation :

As managing director of the Brexit Party Ltd, managing director Nigel Farage did an outstanding job of hoovering up the Leave vote in its entirety.

So well done to him and his company.

But the remain votes were still in a majority.

So bad luck Nigel...another battle fought and lost.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by Pint Master » Mon May 27, 2019 10:15 pm

Richard Simpson Mark II wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 10:11 pm
My observation :

As managing director of the Brexit Party Ltd, managing director Nigel Farage did an outstanding job of hoovering up the Leave vote in its entirety.

So well done to him and his company.

But the remain votes were still in a majority.

So bad luck Nigel...another battle fought and lost.
Bought to you courtesy of the Diane Abbot school of statistics.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by garyboy » Mon May 27, 2019 10:36 pm

Brexit party lost?


Must look up the meaning of 'double-speak' :roll:

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by daveuprite » Tue May 28, 2019 6:21 am

What Richard correctly calls 'The Brexit Company' won the most votes as a single party. That's beyond dispute. But it basically replaced the old UKIP vote, which totally collapsed, so there was no great advance in the overall numbers of kipper-type voters - it's just that they switched from Farage's UKIP over to Farage's Brexit Party. He also picked up some of the far-right tories who had previously resisted defecting but are now openly critical of May and the current government.

But the primary outcome of the euro election has ironically been summed up by that mad hag Anne Widdecombe, of all people. She called the vote 'the second referendum'. Well of course it wasn't, but let's just assume for a moment that it was. For it to be a second version of the 2016 brexit referendum, we firstly have to reduce it to a binary question, like it was before. So that means counting all the votes that were cast for parties that support the UK leaving the EU and set them against all the votes that were cast for parties proposing to remain.

The outcome of doing that is horribly similar to the 2016 referendum result, even if you don't count Labour's voters as remainers, which at the time of the euro vote you couldn't rely on. In fact there's a very narrow lead for remain, just as there was a very narrow lead for leave back in 2016.

So not much has changed. The country is still split quite evenly. Had Labour come out unequivocally some weeks ago in favour of a people's vote or A50 revocation, then we'd be looking at a clear remain majority - but it didn't.

The main outcome of the euro vote is another negative one, I suppose, which is to show that crashing out of the EU without any deal would now fly in the face of at least half the country's wishes and that such a reckless action is totally unacceptable.

So, will we be back to more months of watching our politicians polishing and re-polishing the brexit turd? Or will somebody sensible step forward and tell the country to for god's sake give it up?


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Last edited by daveuprite on Tue May 28, 2019 6:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by HedgeHopper » Tue May 28, 2019 6:38 am

Richard Simpson Mark II wrote:
Mon May 27, 2019 10:11 pm
My observation :

As managing director of the Brexit Party Ltd, managing director Nigel Farage did an outstanding job of hoovering up the Leave vote in its entirety.

So well done to him and his company.

But the remain votes were still in a majority.

So bad luck Nigel...another battle fought and lost.

This lie has been popping up all over the internet, as it gets re-posted by the remain zealots whose fervour far surpasses their integrity.

The fact that adding up the posts of all the parties that advocate remain equals a bit more that the votes from one leave party means remain votes outnumber leave votes is a bit of statistical tom foolery that ignores the fact that many people vote for their party for many different reasons, quite a few from simple party faithfull inertia and of course any number of other policy issues. (the greens for instance making huge gains because of increasing alarm at the state of the planet)

Only idiots are fooled by this disingeuous twisting of reality and only idiots believe it when they say it, I don't think your an idiot Richard so can only assume you know you are lying.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by scutty » Tue May 28, 2019 8:18 am

How would you then define the results?

The explicit Leave parties: 7.4m votes
Brexit Ltd picked up 29 seats (they took all 24 of the UKIP seats and added 5 more)
Conservatives lost 15 seats
UKIP lost 24 seats
DUP - retained seat

The explicit Remain parties: 6.9m votes
Lib Dems gained 15 seats
Greens gained 4 seats
SNP gained 1 seat
Alliance gained 1 seat
Plaid C. kept their 1 seat
Sinn F. retained their seat

How you split the Labour's 2.3m votes is the tricky one - much to everyone's frustration they are neither an explicit Leave or Remain party

TBH - I don't think anything has really changed since 2016, our nation is still split in half and shows no sign of healing any time soon.

Sad days

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by DavidS » Tue May 28, 2019 8:48 am

But I thought Remainers wanted a more decisive percentage used.
So, using the same sort of irrelevant logic, as Leave is the status quo, any new referendum should need a bigger majority to Remain.

I think that adding Brexit Party and UKIP does show a rise, albeit on a few %.
Including all Labour or Conservative votes as a vote for one faction is flawed as many people will vote for a party, irrespective of the issues.
The Beeb actually did a useful graph last night that ‘proved’ both sides won. :lol:

Talking of issues, the wind must have changed as Labour want to completely change their policy so they can get some votes.
They don’t care about the subjects, just the votes.
Give the Lib Dems credit, they stick by their Remain stance.
2017 Triumph Street Twin ; 2015 Husky FE450; 1967 Triumph Trophy.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by scutty » Tue May 28, 2019 9:32 am

So, now Brexit Ltd have their seats and Chairman Farage has his 'mandate' - when do you think they'll publish their manifesto with their plan to leave the EU?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say never. I don't think they have an answer for the NI border issue at all and that's just the 1st hurdle.

How so many people can vote for a 'party' that has no manifesto is beyond me, as is the fact you can stand for election without having to publish a manifesto.

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Re: EU. In or out?

Post by Crossrutted » Tue May 28, 2019 10:16 am

HedgeHopper wrote:
Tue May 28, 2019 6:38 am

This lie has been popping up all over the internet, as it gets re-posted by the remain zealots whose fervour far surpasses their integrity.

The fact that adding up the posts of all the parties that advocate remain equals a bit more that the votes from one leave party means remain votes outnumber leave votes is a bit of statistical tom foolery that ignores the fact that many people vote for their party for many different reasons, quite a few from simple party faithfull inertia and of course any number of other policy issues. (the greens for instance making huge gains because of increasing alarm at the state of the planet)

Only idiots are fooled by this disingeuous twisting of reality
If you change the word "remain" for "leave" your analysis could equally be applied to any "leave" argument.

The original referendum was for many the chance to kick the establishment in the nuts, they didn't consider the real consequences, as nobody expected a leave vote.

Voting for the leave party last week was also chance for both leavers and remainers to register their current contempt for all the political class.

No sane person would vote Farage for PM - he's a single issue rabble rouser.

The only way to get a true result now, is to hold a referendum with one clear question - "Remain or Leave?"

Then insist all politicians and talking heads tell the truth by enforcing criminal consequences for lies.

As before, the increasingly hysterical arguments from leaver politicians against a second referendum makes me certain it would be a good thing.

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