Covid 19 Coronavirus

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daveuprite
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by daveuprite » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:07 am

Asgard wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:18 am
(they worry about the image it projects of a country out of control.)
Bit late for that...

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garyboy
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by garyboy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:06 pm

Jak* wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:26 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... he-answers
Interesting article if you haven’t read it.


i wonder if it lost on people that the 1348 pandemic death rate was 80% ......... 800 in every 1000.

the death rate for covid 19 in 2020 pandemic is 0.1% .... 1 in every 1000.



are we missing something here?
or are the figures wrong ?????

qcnr
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by qcnr » Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:23 am

Advancement in medical science... Could be a factor. :roll:

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Asgard
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by Asgard » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:36 am

Yep and I very much doubt they had means to detect asymptomatic cases in 1348, or even that the data itself is of any accuracy (1348 was a long time ago and look at what a mess we make of providing accurate statistics even today)
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by Crossrutted » Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:34 pm

qcnr wrote:
Tue Nov 03, 2020 6:23 am
Advancement in medical science... Could be a factor. :roll:
But possibly not in Wales? :D

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Asgard
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by Asgard » Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:16 pm

Oi !!!!!, you wouldnt even have an health service if it werent for a Taffy socialist
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by sledgegreen » Tue Nov 03, 2020 10:18 pm

garyboy wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:06 pm
Jak* wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:26 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... he-answers
Interesting article if you haven’t read it.


i wonder if it lost on people that the 1348 pandemic death rate was 80% ......... 800 in every 1000.

the death rate for covid 19 in 2020 pandemic is 0.1% .... 1 in every 1000.



are we missing something here?
or are the figures wrong ?????

garyboy wrote:
Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:06 pm
Jak* wrote:
Sun Nov 01, 2020 8:26 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... he-answers
Interesting article if you haven’t read it.


i wonder if it lost on people that the 1348 pandemic death rate was 80% ......... 800 in every 1000.

the death rate for covid 19 in 2020 pandemic is 0.1% .... 1 in every 1000.



are we missing something here?
or are the figures wrong ?????

I think you are missing something vitally important - the implications of exponential growth of infection rates.

If the number of cases doubles every week, then 0.1% becomes 100% in less than 3 months:

Week 1 - 1 in 1000
Week 2 - 2 in 1000
Week 3 - 4 in 1000
Week 4 - 8 in 1000
Week 5 - 16 in 1000
Week 6 - 32 in 1000
Week 7 - 64 in 1000
Week 8 - 128 in 1000
Week 9 - 256 in 1000
Week 10 - 512 in 1000
Week 11 - 1024 in 1000

So, little numbers can become very big numbers very quickly. It is very important that we keep transmissions rates as low as possible.

I also think your figures are wrong, or at least selectively quoted. Death rates of 80% seem to have been recorded in Florence, but that seems to be an exceptionally high rate. Across Europe as a whole, death rates seem to have been closer to 50%, and that was over a period of about 4 years.

Without wishing to trivialise the Black Death, I think that it would be foolish to assume that Covid's current body count indicates that it is less potent. The reality is that the control measures which are currently available will not completely prevent transmission, but they will reduce transmission rates. Keep the transmission rate low, and we keep infection rates low.

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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by johnnyboxer » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:06 am

Without a successful vaccine, we won’t be free of Covid

On Monday I had an interesting talk with a high profile vet who specialises in disease control in high density animal populations (similar in many ways to human populations) and perhaps we ought to have a few vets on SAGE as they have more experience of similar epidemics in animals
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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by garyboy » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:10 am

mister Green ... I think you may be confusing `DEATH RATE` with `REPRODUCTIVE RATE` (R number)


Mortality rate or death rate for covid 19 has been quoted as 0.1% .. by WHO and others.
but this has more recently been refuted by some, who now put it at more like 0.5 - 1.0 % ... or around say 0.9%, which is nearly ten times originally quoted. ... so the original figure of 60,000 projected deaths in a rampant UK, would be more like 600,000 apparently.

the Reproductive Rate is based around 1 .. this is a number not a percentage ... one person passes it on to one more person. ..... if greater than 1, or less than 1, defines the spread rate, or reproduction of the virus .... it is not a final figure. ..... if left to reproduce .. the Natural R number for covid 19 is 3... !!!!


the 1348 plague .. one third died, then this rose to half died in cities, which led to self isolation and richer people moving to less dense areas. ... so indeed, the piece quote of .. 80% does seem to be exaggerated ... but those are not my figures .. they are in the piece of writing quoted.

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Re: Covid 19 Coronavirus

Post by daveuprite » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:46 pm

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