EU. In or out?

[HedgeHopper]

David, I think it's plain to see that your first option (pretending to be trying leave) was the actual plan, but she has lied and faked so comprehensively and pissed off the public so much with her failure to deliver even that pathetic plan, that the snakes in parliament sense it would not do their careers any good to continue backing her, so its bye bye Treez

[HedgeHopper]

What is much more important than Leave/Remain
is the apparent demise of British Democracy ..

It was an illusion all along Gary.

[Fried Egg Sandwich]

What is much more important than Leave/Remain
is the apparent demise of British Democracy ..

Which was started by David Cameron by single handedly deciding that this advisory referendum to test for the flavour of thought in the country was suddenly transformed in to an binding result.

We are a representative democracy where issues of such importance and far reaching consequences are decided by our elected representatives, not "put to the people".

Can you imagine how much more chaos we would have if all our laws were decided this way.

It's all been said on here before.

I've yet to see ONE real positive that can come from leaving the EU.

[Crossrutted]

I've yet to see ONE real positive that can come from leaving the EU.

After this clusterf$ck of embarrassing proportions and the economic and social collapse that may occur if we leave, the best we can hope for
with regard to governance is proportional representation.

To stop this pendulum swing from one political extreme to another every 5 - 10 years.

The Labour and Conservative 2 party dominance must have surely had it's day?

[Brenhden]

I've yet to see ONE real positive that can come from leaving the EU.

After this clusterf$ck of embarrassing proportions and the economic and social collapse that may occur if we leave, the best we can hope for
with regard to governance is proportional representation.

To stop this pendulum swing from one political extreme to another every 5 - 10 years.

The Labour and Conservative 2 party dominance must have surely had it's day?

Well, I think the tories are done. But rather than the end of two party politics I can see politics being pushed further left and right at the moment. Labour are moving to the left, the Brexit Party are further to the right with UKIP further still and in the middle we now have Green, Libdem and Change who have all ruined it for each other. It's going to take probably 10 years before the parties settle down again.

A lot hangs on the next PM but no know from any party can unite parliament or the nation. I say this as a joke but right now it feels like the Queen should take charge for a bit, at least a reasonoble number of people respect her...

[HedgeHopper]

After this clusterf$ck of embarrassing proportions and the economic and social collapse that may occur if we leave

Firstly, we aint leaving, secondly the clusterfuck was brought on by the dichotomy of a parliament that talked about honouring the referendum result whilst openly plotting to block it at every turn, egged on by load mouthed losers who despite being a minority get majority airtime because they just can't bare not getting their own way without throwing their toys out the pram and inventing no-end of pseudo-intellectual doomsday scenarios to make it look like they actually know what the fuck they are talking about....they dont and they aint fooling nobody but themselves

[Richard Simpson Mark II]

...apart from the 5000 steel workers who get their cards today, and the 20,000 workers in the supply chain.

Those jobs are gone as a direct result of Brexit...which many of them were conned into voting for.

[Crossrutted]

After this clusterf$ck of embarrassing proportions and the economic and social collapse that may occur if we leave

Firstly, we aint leaving, secondly the clusterfuck was brought on by the dichotomy of a parliament that talked about honouring the referendum result whilst openly plotting to block it at every turn, egged on by load mouthed losers who despite being a minority get majority airtime because they just can't bare not getting their own way without throwing their toys out the pram and inventing no-end of pseudo-intellectual doomsday scenarios to make it look like they actually know what the fuck they are talking about....they dont and they aint fooling nobody but themselves

I hope your first comment becomes fact.

Strangely, over the recent months, my radio and television seems to have been dominated by increasingly hysterical brexiteer MP's who whilst demanding votes for themselves, are happy to deny us (the population) a chance to restate our preference.

I've yet to hear anybody, from either side, able to convince me they "know what the fuck they are talking about".

It is a monumental disaster which will now take decades to recover from, irrespective of whether we leave or stay.

[OB1]

...apart from the 5000 steelworkers who get their cards today, and the 20,000 workers in the supply chain.

Those jobs are gone as a direct result of Brexit...which many of them were conned into voting for.

This is one of the many facts that will be ignored by those who voted to leave.

The other day, I mentioned to a friend who voted to leave that the vote has already affected the company that I work for. His response was that it couldn't have anything to do with Brexit as it hasn't happened yet. I pointed out that it doesn't matter if it hasn't happened yet, just that the perception to the rest of the World was that we will no longer be part of the largest trading bloc, therefore we are weaker than the rest of Europe.

It doesn't matter when we leave or even if we leave, the damage has already been done: a week after the vote, the majority of our Asian suppliers added 10% to their prices and a couple of weeks after that, Apple added 20% to their prices. The same thing has happened with British Steel: their orders have dried up because there may be tariffs added to their invoices once an order is fulfilled... and this is all because of Brexit!

Back in 2016, the Leave Campaign was shouting about Project Fear and that no one could know what would happen. That may be true, however, it doesn't take a genius to work out what could happen.

[daveuprite]

It is a monumental disaster which will now take decades to recover from, irrespective of whether we leave or stay.

Mmm, yes a monumental disaster, but not 'irrespective of leaving or staying'.

A stay scenario (i.e. remain in the EU on the current terms) would LIMIT the damage:

1) to the loss of business that has already fled the UK,
2) to the loss of investment and revenue from the recent collapse in business confidence
3) to the loss of international standing in the last 3 years
4) to the cultural battle that would still rage for a while after A50 revocation
5) and to the healing required to repair all the divisions of the last 3 years.

Obviously it's hard to estimate the total financial and social cost of the above. Estimates seem to start at roughly 40 billion so far. Lots of it has already been spent/lost. Failing Grayling has cost the UK many millions all on his own. But at least remaining draws some kind of clean line under further losses, with just the UK's reputation damaged and probably a lot of trust lost. At least that's repairable.

CONVERSELY any leave scenario (including a no-deal crash) results in most, and possibly all of the following:

1) a minimum 39 billion divorce bill for fees owed
2) the loss of free trading in to the UK's neighbouring trading block and the world's richest trading block
3) withdrawal related legal costs and disputes stretching forward decades
4) recessionary forces into the medium term, higher inflation, higher interest rates and large scale job losses
5) permanent loss of business to rivals in the EU and elsewhere, and the withdrawal of large employers from existing UK bases
6) diminution of standards to enable U.S. companies to enter the UK consumer and services market
7) take over of NHS contracts by foreign companies, effectively leading to part-privatisation or eventually full privatisation of the sector
8) UK loses its UN Security Council seat, most of its international authority and probably drops out of the G8
9) Scottish Independence becomes likely or maybe inevitable, with increased calls for the same from Wales
10) Northern Ireland eventually joins Eire in a united Ireland after armed conflict resumes over border issues

And much more besides. With no clear end in sight. Unless of course the country asks to rejoin the EU as a new entrant, which might take upwards of 7 years and require the UK to adopt the Euro and the same entry conditions as any other newcomer.


SO, yes, it does appear that the current situation is a desperate clusterfuck. But I would argue that it is not equally bad in all scenarios. The UK was on to a loser the moment the referendum result came in in 2016, but the sheer extent of that loss has yet to be decided and the coming months will determine if the losses are limited and repairable or long term and permanent.