Post Coronovirus, Will we be Welcome as Travellers?

[spangle]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[phil_h]

Could it be that the answer is most of the folk that have died here would have anyway? Huge numbers with three or more other issues (91%)

If all those without issues are looked at the number of deaths is tiny.

It's been a fallacy from start to finish.

Actually its very hard to find sets of figures that are comparable from nation to nation - even in the uk from one region to another is a problem.
The best figures to refute what you are saying right now are from scotland - see below- and look at the stacked pinky/greeny graph about halfway down. Even with lockdown, there are about 75% more deaths than expected over a 5 year average level.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

The only figures that can be reliably compared across all countries are the hospital admission levels and the discharge (cured) levels, and then correlate those against the population size. Surprise ! No-one is doing that. Everyone is flapping... oh, I forgot, we've got politicians in charge, taking their advice from their favourite scientists and spin doctors.

Everyone needs to wear something like a neck tube pulled up to stop _their_ breath being unfiltered _whenever_ they go into a place where they are/may be within 5m (yes five metres) of other people. If we _all_ keep that up then we will _all_ be safer from being infected by people who have no idea that they are infectious. (And the bonus is that it'll stop you getting flu and colds from them too ) )
Not forgetting the hand washing of course, especially after you take off your scarf !!!

A fallacy eh ? I think you're overdue to see it strike close at home if thats your and your family's attitude !

[Asgard]

It's been a fallacy from start to finish

Righto, its all over, nothing to see here..........see you down the pub

[flamair]

Could it be that the answer is most of the folk that have died here would have anyway? Huge numbers with three or more other issues (91%)

If all those without issues are looked at the number of deaths is tiny.

It's been a fallacy from start to finish.

Actually its very hard to find sets of figures that are comparable from nation to nation - even in the uk from one region to another is a problem.
The best figures to refute what you are saying right now are from scotland - see below- and look at the stacked pinky/greeny graph about halfway down. Even with lockdown, there are about 75% more deaths than expected over a 5 year average level.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52214177

The only figures that can be reliably compared across all countries are the hospital admission levels and the discharge (cured) levels, and then correlate those against the population size. Surprise ! No-one is doing that. Everyone is flapping... oh, I forgot, we've got politicians in charge, taking their advice from their favourite scientists and spin doctors.

Everyone needs to wear something like a neck tube pulled up to stop _their_ breath being unfiltered _whenever_ they go into a place where they are/may be within 5m (yes five metres) of other people. If we _all_ keep that up then we will _all_ be safer from being infected by people who have no idea that they are infectious. (And the bonus is that it'll stop you getting flu and colds from them too ) )
Not forgetting the hand washing of course, especially after you take off your scarf !!!

A fallacy eh ? I think you're overdue to see it strike close at home if thats your and your family's attitude !

Scotland?

About the worse place you could suggest. Have you seen the heart disease/overweight/diabetes levels there?


Fact is that 1600 people die every single day.
Fact. Most of the CV deaths have been over 80 (50%+l and or have had 3 or more SERIOUS LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS!! (91%+)
That's three conditions that at anytime could kill them. It could be Covid. It could be flu. It could be food poisoning, it could (in the case of over half the deaths (80 years + ) be old age.

No one has a right to live until they're 100. It's just a lottery.

That's all before we even consider the effect this lockdown is having in every other aspect of life.

'Target fixating' in something that will do it's thing anyway is a very dangerous state of affairs.

Wait until there are 15 million unemployed and those that are working are paying tax at 40% and 60% to pay for all this....

You have to look at the bigger picture sometimes.




Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[johnnyboxer]

Sweden haven't had a lockdown. Their spread of the virus has been no different to other countries. Actually, that isn't true. It's been a lot less prevalent there than here, Spain, France and Italy.

You are only certain that the lockdown has worked because the government have told you so.

If that is indeed the case, then why hasn't this 'killer virus' reaked absolute havoc in Sweden where a lockdown hasn't happened?

They've dealt with it far better than the majority of the countries that have had one.


Here for example, we've demonstrated exactly how to not deal with such an occurrence.



Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

You cannot compare Sweden to UK

We have a population of 66m and 9.3m in London alone - Sweden has a total population of 10.27m for the country, so only 1m more than whole of London

Plus Sweden has the largest amount of single occupancy households - so less spread in the community

Also they have had a self imposed lockdown and a greater awareness of social distancing from a compliant population and any cafe/restaurants have had remove half the tables and enforce a 2m distance between each person, implementation controlled by each health inspector

Comparing uk to Sweden on cv19 is folly

No it isn't..

If you break the numbers down as percentages it is very comparable


Stockholm has a high density of population.
And yet they have still managed to prevent this 'huge killer' destroying the place- without lockdown, without closing cafes, restaurants etc. Folk are still working.

If this was such a rampant killer, why hasn't it rampaged through Stockholm?

Could it be that the answer is most of the folk that have died here would have anyway? Huge numbers with three or more other issues (91%)

If all those without issues are looked at the number of deaths is tiny.

It's been a fallacy from start to finish.



Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

You believe whatever your belief is
Sweden isn't comparable

[daveuprite]

You are only certain that the lockdown has worked because the government have told you so.

A couple of points in response:

1) The lockdown has partially worked. I wouldn't ever say it has 'worked'. While people are allowed to mix in supermarkets etc it can only ever be considered a partial lockdown. But people have to eat, obviously.

2) I don't just believe things because a government tells me so, as you could know from other very critical posts I've made about how the political leaders have dealt with Covid. I can do my own research, and with four years of my old life tied up in an MSc and a doctoral thesis, I do have a rough idea how to do it. In the case of this virus, we have epidemiological mathematics to help us. The maths is very well researched and indisputable. CV19 appears to have a starting R0 of about 3 (effective reproduction no.), so that's a simple exponent trend of 3, 9, 27 etc. If absolutely nothing had been done to prevent the spread (i.e. no quarantine or distancing measures), then the maths points to about half a million deaths in the UK alone. Given the fact that the caseload/death figures are far lower than this, it can be said with some certainty that the lockdown has been effective (R0 currently appears to be 0.6 - 0.9), and could continue to be if it is not eased irresponsibly.

[Oop North John]

How the R0 has changed before / during lockdown is shown here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

Assuming that you don't believe that the BBC is a government mouthpiece / is out to destroy the fault free government

R0 less than one seems to be the goal, how that is achieved in small steps will keep the advisers of all sorts awake at night I guess, unless we're going to go for herd immunity again.

[flamair]

How the R0 has changed before / during lockdown is shown here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52473523

Assuming that you don't believe that the BBC is a government mouthpiece / is out to destroy the fault free government

R0 less than one seems to be the goal, how that is achieved in small steps will keep the advisers of all sorts awake at night I guess, unless we're going to go for herd immunity again.

Even if you accept that the lockdown was the only answer (and I'm still not convinced), it is only effective for as long as it lasts. Get below the magic number of less than one (and yes I fully understand the maths behind it) in theory we have success...But that's the issue. In practice, that isn't necessarily the case.

If it were, an RO of less than 1 would mean that there was no issue. The lockdown could be released and everything would be hunky dory again.

I think we all know that isn't the case.

If you accept the lockdown is the answer, it is only the answer for as long as it lasts for.
And 26,000 folk have died, many that would have anyway.

Not sure how Sweden managed to flatten their curve so well if lockdown was the only answer.

Conversely Italy and Spain had extreme lockdown and did not fare well....

Germany had lockdown and have nailed it comparatively...

We've had lockdown and death prevention has been woeful, if you accept they have all been directly caused by Covid ( I think everyone that can think for themselves realises that's not the case)

There's a pattern here. Four countries with lockdown 3 doing badly one pretty well. Similar demographics. So if lockdown is so good... why did not all the countries fare similarly?

Sweden, no lockdown, flattened the curve.
Slightly different demographic, but certainly within the capital city not that different to anywhere else.

There are anomalies in the above that suggest many other factors are at work here.

We have completely fixed on one approach. There is no way the government will ever admit they got it wrong in any of the four countries above. Only the Swedish government can say they weren't the sheep of Europe. And their deaths were better than most. If you compare them to the other Scandanvian countries they fared either better or similar.

This is not black and white clearly.

Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

[spangle]

R0 less than one seems to be the goal, how that is achieved in small steps will keep the advisers of all sorts awake at night I guess, unless we're going to go for herd immunity again.

In my opinion, the gov have continued their herd immunity throughout, despite statements to the contrary. It’s being achieved through stealth: lies & deceit. It’s the only possible reason they’ve made decisions consistently later than required - shutdown, PPE provision, medical hardware provision, testing...etc.

Johnson’s claim to have been successful in avoiding the tragedies happening in other countries is based on the NHS not being overwhelmed, as it was in Italy. The only way he’s achieved this is by forcing people to die in care homes and personal homes rather than in hospitals.

This opinion is widely espoused by scientific and medical experts in the appropriate fields. Their only success has been in controlling the media whilst allowing the virus to “pass through the community” as he actually stated as his intention in February.

The manipulation of the death count is such that it’s widely accepted among experts that we already have the second highest death rate on the planet.

Given the facts that we had a 2-3 week lead on the rest of Europe and we’re an island, the government’s achievement is remarkable. Hopefully, history will one day reflect the barbaric treatment of UK citizens, particularly the elderly and vulnerable.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Monster]

WOW ... from the Title of ... Post Coronovirus, Will we be Welcome as Travellers?

I thought this section might be about travelling ideas ... not political views

Little did I know !!!

Still dreaming of getting away on my bike .... was supposed to be leaving Portsmouth headed for Santander at 1700 today

Oh well